Florida Flooding Douses Election Day Voting

Heavy rain and flooding across Florida in the days before Election Day closed roads, forced polling places to move and raised questions about whether some voters would be able to cast their ballots.

Statewide, an estimated 1.9 trillion gallons of rain fell in a 24-hour period. In southern Brevard County, 16 to 22 inches of rain fell between midnight and Monday afternoon, passing the threshold for a 1-in-1,000-year rain event in parts of Palm Bay, Malabar and Grant-Valkaria with rain so heavy it has about a 0.1% chance of happening in any given year.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency Monday in seven counties, which allowed elections supervisors to request alternate polling arrangements if flooding kept them from meeting standard requirements. Five polling places in Palm Beach and Broward counties had to be moved, and the same day, Brevard’s Supervisor of Elections Office moved six polling locations that the flooding had left unusable.

The Florida Department of State relocated at least 24 polling places overall. For voters assigned to those precincts, the changes came with less than a day’s notice, while roads in the hardest-hit neighborhoods were still underwater. Online, several critics of the DeSantis administration charged that the governor has not funded flooding mitigation during his tenure, often vetoing money for drainage projects in coastal cities that are now so inundated with water that people couldn’t get out of their neighborhoods to vote.

Dr. Kevin Wagner, a political science professor and associate dean at Florida Atlantic University, said political scientists look at the cost of voting, meaning how much time and effort it takes to cast a ballot. When that cost goes up, fewer people turn out.

“When you're worried about flooding in your streets and trying to just get to work, sometimes voting takes a back seat,” said Wagner, whose own West Palm Beach neighborhood flooded. “The expectation is in areas that are having very difficult times with the flooding that they're going to have turnout that’s going to be depressed.”

Many Floridians had already voted. Nearly 3.5 million voted early in person, and close to 2 million more returned mail ballots before Election Day, a total equal to 69% of the state’s entire turnout in the 2022 midterms.

When it comes to which voters the flooding affected, that is harder to pin down. Wagner said the most motivated voters will try to overcome whatever obstacles they face, and that statewide, the weather could matter more for one party than the other.

“We know that in Florida, Democrats were more likely to participate at higher rates in early voting,” he said. “The expectation is that Republicans were going to be a stronger day-of vote.”

Rachel Beam, who lives in Micco in southern Brevard County, voted early with her husband two weeks before Election Day. By Tuesday, water had risen about a foot and a half on her porch, her husband's car was dead and a car that got stuck on a nearby road during Monday's storm was still sitting there.

“I have not been able to leave my house in two days,” Beam said in a phone interview.

Her polling location was also moved. She said she probably could have made it, likely with a ride from a neighbor, but not every voter has that option.

“For people who are elderly or don't drive or don't have anybody looking in on them, everybody pretty much has to rely on each other,” Beam said. “Without good Samaritans, I'm sure there are a lot of people who can't get to the polls.”

That includes her mother-in-law, who lives down the street. Beam said she didn't think she made it out to vote.

For voters who couldn't leave their neighborhoods, the options were few. Wagner said that in catastrophic circumstances, the state or a court can step in to keep polls open later, but he wasn't sure this situation would rise to that level. 

Wagner, who also voted early, said that is part of why early and mail voting exist.

“One of the reasons that we have early voting and we have mail voting is because that one day to vote sometimes can be difficult for people,” he said, whether because of the weather or because they are out of town.

Beam hopes this year changes how people plan. “I would really hope that we learn a lesson from this,” she said.

How many voters the flooding kept home may not be clear for some time. Wagner said the picture will only come into focus once researchers review the numbers and see where the water hit hardest. For now, what is clear is that in parts of Florida, getting to the polls this year took more than just showing up.

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